There has been much news and discussion concerning the tragic stage collapse at the Indiana State Fair near Indianapolis Saturday night. Five people were killed, with several dozen more injured when the temporary stage set up there was blown over by a severe gust of wind (among others, Henry Margusity of Accuweather believes that the wind could have been from a gustnado – a wind vortex that begins at ground level along the gust front of a thunderstorm). Indiana governor Mitch Daniels has called the event a “fluke”, which, while a common gesture of disassociating blame among the general public, has been quickly and loudly doubted by many whose professional lives involve analyzing the weather.

Meteorologists from across the nation have chimed in on many interesting topics surrounding this tragedy. It does not take very long to understand the basic meteorological principle that occurred here: a strong, sustained gust front working its way ahead of a long line of severe thunderstorms passing across the state. That, for the most part, is not the topic of their discussion. They instead are touching on such issues as reading radar data, smartphone weather data availability and “playing meteorologist” as well as some talk of emergency preparedness and who should really be monitoring the weather for these sorts of events. I’ve attempted to pull some of the best content from entries I’ve discovered below.

KIND Radar Loop from 8:00-9:06PM local time (0000z-0106z) showing the approaching gust front and storms. Image source: Brad Panovich.

We begin with some commentary by Brad Panovich Chief Meteorologist at WCNC-TV in Charlotte, NC. Brad has a detailed timeline of the event on his posting, along with many corresponding radar images like the one posted above. He does not deny the possibility of a weather-related “fluke” occurring (as these certainly can with “pulses” of strong winds from suddenly emerging/strengthening storms), but says that this was clearly not the case here. (A trained eye need only glimpse at the radar loop above to see why.) He further writes:

There was plenty of warning, if you you knew or wanted to know what was going to happen. The focus on the actual Severe Thunderstorm Warning is insignificant in my opinion. The warning was issued at 8:39pm which was 10 mins before the stage collapsed. A severe thunderstorm warning is only issued when winds are 58mph or higher or hail is 1” in diameter or larger. Problem here is you have people in an outdoor event and around a temporary structure which requires them to seek shelter at a much lower threshold. Something that should have been known by those organizing the event. One of the fatalities was a stage hand in a metal light structure running a spot light, with lightning clearly visible in the distance. Lightning alone was sufficient reason to evacuate people and since lightning was within 10 miles of the fair grounds patrons should have been seeking shelter.

He also takes issue with the quoted reliance on smartphone apps in dealing with this situation, eloquently stating that "a weather app is not a meteorologist just like WebMD is not a doctor."

This quote was also noted by WRAL-TV (Raleigh, NC) meteorologist and weather producer Nate Johnson in his posting titled “Smarter Phones, Smarter Weather?“. His post asks the question “Does putting these tools and data in someone’s hands automatically make them credible and qualified to use those tools and interpret those data?” (emphasis mine) to which he responds, “Clearly, the answer to that is ‘no’ — however, there’s more than enough anecdotal evidence to suggest that’s exactly what happens anyway.”

Meteorologist and author of the book “Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather” Mike Smith echoes Nate’s concerns that weather consumers (that is, the general public not in the meteorological field) too often take the tools they “know how to use” and try to “play meteorologist”, attempting to recreate what they watch their local TV meteorologists do. (There is a line between simply pointing at a “yellow blob” on an iPhone screen and understanding the meteorology behind it.) In fact, Mike’s “Best Practice #1″ for businesses in the path of severe weather is to "get out of the weather business." He follows that statement with the claim that “Meteorology is a complex science and determining the safety of thousands of people is not a role for amateurs.”

It is clear that there are many forces in play when dealing with severe weather threats. For whatever reason, there was a breakdown in balancing these forces on Saturday which resulted in the untimely and unfortunate death of five fairgoers. We are at a pivotal point in this country when it comes to paying attention to the weather. After extreme weather running the gamut in not only type but also location this year, more Americans than ever are tuned into the weather. Many will try to tackle forecasting severe storms on their own, in the same “do-it-yourself” spirit they likely conduct many activities in their lives. But the weather is still a very tricky business. At this point, it is still very much better off left to professional meteorologists. As Brian Williams of NBC News reported on the situation in Indiana:

The truth is the National Weather Service is so good and forecasting has become so accurate, bad weather seldom arrives these days without warning.

Source: “Protect the National Weather Service” Facebook Page

Mike Smith reported a similar forecasting success story in the private sector, claiming “Our AccuWeather meteorologists correctly identified the situation and issued a warning for a client near the Fairgrounds that called for ’60 mph winds’ a half hour before the time the winds collapsed the stage.”

What has happened is done. Our thoughts and prayers go out to those killed in the storm and our wishes for a speedy recovery to those injured over the weekend in the Hoosier State. But as Tim Ballisty of The Weather Channel writes (original link broken):

This is a teaching moment. There are lessons to be learned – the main one being we should all be weather aware especially when outdoors; taking the necessary precautions in advance of approaching severe weather. Knowledge is power. When attending an outdoor event, find out the weather forecast for the day beforehand and monitor the sky. Don’t just leave the decision making to event officials. Use your common sense and take matters into your own hands. If you don’t feel safe, do something about it. Seek safety and look after the well-being of your friends, family and others around you.

More Information

• Wikipedia page
• Photos before and after collapse by photographer Ernie Mills (Viewer discretion advised)